IPCC predicted climate effects on the Falkland Islands
Written for the August 20, 2021, issue of Penguin News under the headline “UN warns climate change a ‘code red for humanity”
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the body of the United Nations mandated to provide objective scientific information relevant to understanding human-induced climate change, released on August 9 the climate report they set out every 6 to 7 years - which in 2007 resulted in the IPCC earning a Nobel Peace Prize. UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated that climate change is “a code red for humanity.”
In addition to information about the effects of possible climate futures on a global and continental level, information is provided about the effects on subsections of continents, such as Southern South America - which includes the Falklands - and digital projections of various effects to yet more specific degrees, such as the predicted sea level rise in Stanley and change in annual mean temperature for the Falklands in different climate scenarios.
The IPCC report warns that without “immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions” in greenhouse gas emissions, it will be “impossible to limit warming close to 1.5°C or even 2°C,” and details the potential effects of various levels of action against greenhouse gas emissions, including for the Falkland Islands and Southern South America.
Among IPCC projections is a model released in conjunction with NASA which visualises predicted sea levels on various marked locations - including Stanley.
The IPCC NASA model predicts that by the year 2100 the sea level in Stanley will increase by a minimum of 26cm (in a scenario of zero worldwide CO2 emissions from around 2050), or up to 71cm (in a scenario where no worldwide additional climate policy is implemented).
The regional summary for South America states that throughout the area “relative sea level rise is extremely likely to continue” and this effect will contribute to “increased coastal flooding in low-lying areas (high confidence) and shoreline retreat along most sandy coasts (high confidence).”
Among other effects on the Falklands detailed in the IPCC report is the change in annual mean temperature of the Islands. This is expected to increase by between 0.7 and 2.4°C by the year 2100 in the same range of scenarios (between zero worldwide CO2 emissions from 2050 and no worldwide additional climate policy being implemented). This is in accordance with increases in temperatures across South America which are expected “to increase at rates greater than the global average”
IPCC projections for the area of Southern South America - which include the Falkland Islands - also state with medium confidence that the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation will increase in the region of Southern South America, but has high confidence that increased agricultural and ecological drought will also be seen from the mid-21st century onwards; even in scenarios with some of the more drastic climate change mitigating action.
In this same section of the IPCC report it states with medium confidence that “fire weather is projected to increase over Southern Central America and Southern South America.” The IPCC report specifically defines fire weather as being the conditions which set the stage for wildfires and their rapid spread - such as low relative humidity and high air temperatures.
Fires like the one on Pebble Island in 2019 may become more common and do greater damage in the future according to the IPCC
Other notable regional changes included a reduction in the pH (the measure of the acidity or alkalinity of a solution or soil) of the ocean surrounding the Falklands, by as much as 0.4pH by 2100 - which can have major impact on various forms of sea life. This corresponds with a change in mean annual sea surface temperature of between 0.7 and 2.1°C from a most to least action scenario respectively.
Also said to be of high likelihood of occurence were coastal floods and maritime heatwaves.
The report states in the summary for policymakers “it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land” and adds “human-induced climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe.”
Laguna Isla Pond completely dry in early 2021, raised then as a concern surrounding camp land drying out. Photo: K Alazia
Regarding the possibility of worse climate events taking place the report included the following:
In terms of limiting future change the policymakers summary states “limiting human-induced global warming to a specific level requires limiting cumulative CO2 emissions, reaching at least net -zero CO2 emissions, along with strong reductions in other greenhouse gas emissions.”
Dr Rachel Cooper, Head of the FIG Environment Department, said “Climate change is very much an area of local concern... Many of the issues that are raised in the IPCC report e.g. increased wildfire risk, drying of land, ocean acidification and other climate change effects had been highlighted in previous research for the Falkland Islands and came up during the consultation phase and information gathering for the Environment Strategy.”
Dr Cooper told Penguin News that “climate change forms a key theme in he draft strategy” and that potential risks for the Falkland Islands will be assessed and a climate change adaptation and mitigation plan created.
“Climate change is something that affects us all, and we are going to need to tackle it together across government and as a community. Living in a remote place we’ve had to adapt and be resourceful, and that’s something we can definitely build on as a community as we learn to adapt to the challenges of climate change,” Dr Cooper concluded.
IPCC report editorial
IF you’ve seen me around town and I’ve been looking a little morose then it’s probably because I’ve been force feeding myself information about the somewhat doomed state of the environment.
If you, too, want to get a taster session in climate grief (the phenomena of a kind of mourning for the changing planet and future of nature among climate scientists and environmentalists) then indulge in the breakdown of information regarding the effects of climate change on the Falklands from the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on page 12.
It’s the first time that I’ve personally seen so much data quite so specific to the Falklands in an international climate change report, and it makes for a depressing read.
I’m sure I won’t be alone in having noticed that the harbour already gets quite close to the top of the sea wall on the stretch of Ross Road between the 1982 Liberation Memorial and Government House on a particularly high-tide. Given that by the year 2100 the sea level at Stanley may rise up to 71cm, if we happen to have a high tide on the 100th Anniversary of Liberation Day attendees could all have to go to the parade in waders.
Whether we take action or not, from 2050 the southern end of South America and the Falkland Islands should expect to see ecological and agricultural drought. If you had kids in the last 20 years, or were born in the last 20 years, they or you are going to see this change - and many others - before retirement.
All of that is just in the area around the Falklands. Throughout the report you find that whatever change the Falklands is projected as potentially seeing, somewhere else is going to experience it threefold - except sea level rise, that only gets twice as bad in the worst places.
I’ve never been a climate change denier, but the report shattered what little illusions I was still clinging to that this is a problem we’re aiming to solve. It’s all about adapting now, and doing what we can to stop the absolute worst case scenario from being our reality.
The Falklands aren’t such a major contributor to CO2 emissions that we’ll make all the difference on our own, but we can make some difference. The IPCC report asserts constantly throughout its pages that every ton of CO2 makes a difference, as does every day of action. The greatest amount of work needs to be done by the world’s richest, but lets face it that’s not going to happen. So let’s each do a little. Whether it works or not, we can know we did our part.