Labour Force Report proposes solutions to workforce “churn”

Written for the March 26, 2021, issue of Penguin News.

An FIG report has been published on Labour Force Development in the Falklands.

The report, published by Labour Force Development Specialist for the FIG Policy and Economic Development Department Balissa Greene, states a purpose in that it: “Identifies a series of key issues concerned with the development of the Falkland Islands labour force” and “provides a helpful analysis of the complexities involved in producing a longer-term strategy, and also underlines some actions which could help inform future policy.”

The report includes a projection that the Falklands population will grow from 2,843 in 2016 to 4,024 in 2035, “at an average growth of 1.9% per year” or “approximately 63 people per year.”

The report states: “Whilst it is plausible that this growth would be as a result of new people coming into the islands for capital development projects and potential hydrocarbon exploration, it is more likely that actual growth will occur from the conversion of temporary residents into permanent ones.”

The report shows that an alternative “status quo scenario” projects an overall population increase of “approximately 300 people over the next 15 years, equating to approximately 20 people per year”. This would occur in a scenario without the implementation of the capital projects programme or development of the hydrocarbons industry, or other further economic development, in the Falklands. It was noted: “Whilst this number may seem small, it should be highlighted that this rate of growth is already occurring on the islands without a commensurate growth in the infrastructure.”

Included in the report was a graph to illustrate expected total population growth of the Falklands up to 2035 (top) broken down by “core population growth” - contributed to by factors of regular immigration, birth rate, etc without the addition of capital projects, hydrocarbons or other economic development; Islands infrastructure requirements, from the presence of “new people coming into the islands for capital development projects” who are not expected to remain in the islands; and oil & gas development and further economic development.

Notable figures in the report included currently an estimated 23% of the Falkland Islands population can be classified as temporary. A stark warning follows: “Without a concerted effort to encourage individuals to stay and take up permanent residence and ultimately Falkland Island status, this percentage is set to increase to about 35% over the next 15 years.”

The breakdown of the demographics of work permit holders illustrated that the majority of work permit holders are British, as a group almost 50%, the second largest group of work permit holders being Chilean (near 22%), near 7% from the Philippines and a combination of other nationalities making up another 7%. This data excluded MPC, oil and demining contractors.

Analysis in the report of population growth identified that the majority of work permit holders are based in the private sector, and there is a corresponding greater effectiveness of the private sector in converting its work permit holders to PRP and Status holders.

Suggestions for reducing the “churn” - as this constant arrival and departure of work permit holders is referred to - include: reducing the time required before immigrants can apply for citizenship (status) or subsidising the cost of citizenship. A given example of the latter proposal is to subsidise the medical for immigration to £100, representing a cost of £6,100 to Government to “stabilise the numbers of people in the workforce.”

The Labour Force Development Project Report also suggests a number of “attraction narratives” to encourage less temporary migrants in favour of longer lasting immigration.

In addition to the established skills shortage list which will be used to “provide a formal and independent mechanism to identify labour, skills and training needs across the Islands and to ensure a proactive response to these needs through the immigration system, training provision and other routes” suggestions were made of an Online Attraction Portal to “attract prospective residents who share the values and culture of the Falkland Islands.”

The report stated initiatives to attract such individuals are “currently fragmented” and research has revealed “unanimous agreement that finding out more about their new life and experience online or through other sources was characterised by difficulty and a lack of information” among contract workers in the Falklands.

A business case for the Attraction Portal suggested laying out facts about life in the Falklands to allow “potential employees and candidates to make a decision about and prepare for life in the Falkland Islands” by providing a “coherent narrative and approach to attraction and recruitment across the islands” whilst sending a message to potential visitors and skilled migrants that the Falklands are a “thriving, exciting successful location with an offer to attract people to live and work.”

Iterative migration campaigns to be held every three to five years were also suggested, with representatives of the islands attending recruitment fairs to “present the Falkland Islands as a credible destination for skilled migrants and young families.”

Limitations to development stated in the report were: a lack of available housing, the delivery of immigration ordinance updates, the lack of employment laws and worker protection, the current immigration medicals system and the lack of an attraction or identity narrative.

The report, in its conclusion, stated: “The degree of churn within the labour force is unsustainable for economic and social development and needs to be addressed.”

Nicholas Roberts